Watch for anti-interventionist rhetoric

If politicians read the poll numbers and tailor their rhetoric accordingly -- as I think they do -- then we'll see more doves than hawks in the battleground states and districts. A new poll by Politico of the most competitive states and districts this year found even a majority of self-identified Republican voters supporting pulling out of Afghanistan and maintaining or reducing U.S. involvement in Iraq, Syria, and Ukraine.

Additional overall numbers:

More than three-quarters of likely voters say they support plans to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. Only 23 percent oppose the plan.

Forty-four percent of likely voters favor less involvement in Iraq’s civil war, versus 19 percent who favor more involvement and 23 percent who say the current level of involvement is appropriate.

A 51 percent majority said the situation in Iraq affects U.S. national security “a little” or “not at all.” Forty-two percent said it affects U.S. national security “a lot.”

Likely voters prefer less involvement in Syria’s civil war over more involvement, 42 percent to 15 percent. Twenty-six percent of likely voters support the current, limited level of involvement.