Wednesday, December 23, 2015

binary analysis

Harry Truman complained that he wanted to hear from "a one-armed economist" because his own advisers kept saying, "on the one hand, but on the other hand." That's probably true of foreign policy analysis as well.

Is ISIL gaining strength or losing? There are well-argued points on both sides. Is China rising peacefully or preparing for a military confrontation with America? Again, evidence points both ways.

Michael Kofman of CNA shows how confusing and contradictory analysis of Russia is today. I don't know who's right, but the real lesson is to look behind any confident predictions.

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