The outline of the still-to-be-completed agreement with Iran restraining its nuclear programs looks pretty good to me, considering the alternatives. The public debate, however, is already focusing on false alternatives. The lengthy negotiations were never intended to deal with Iranian foreign policy or its support for various militant groups, so ti should not be judged on that basis. Prime Minister Netanyahu claims that the alternative to this deal is a better agreement, if only the U.S. would increase sanctions until Iran surrenders. That's a mirage, for the failure to accept this agreement, regardless of what the United States does, is the collapse of the international coalition that until now has agreed to tough sanctions as leverage for diplomacy. Israel is surely safer under this agreement and intrusive monitoring than under an unrestrained Iranian nuclear program.
If the intelligence community and
other technical experts conclude, once a final agreement is signed, that it
does limit Iran’s breakout potential to a year, I think the administration can
make a good case for it.
The administration
faces two big hurdles, however, the American friends of Israel who are persuaded
that the agreement is bad for Israel and Congress as an institution that will
likely take destructive actions unless it can be given a constructive role.
As a first step, the
administration should stop its punitive actions against Israel. They can be
held in reserve pending future Israeli behavior. Next, the administration
should reach out to American friends of Israel and to Israelis not in the
Netanyahu government to see what steps might reassure Israel if the agreement
is concluded and implemented. Maybe increased military aid would help. Maybe
the U.S. should offer a formal defense treaty, something both sides have resisted in the past but
which now might provide reassurances.
To deal with
Congress, the administration should work out a deal giving Congress one or more
votes on the agreement. The President has broad legal authority to sign and
implement this kind of agreement without submitting it to a 2/3 Senate vote.
But he should agree to allow an advisory vote by Congress and he should embrace
a clear congressional vote on lifting sanctions. If the end result is a congressional
vote criticizing the agreement and keeping US sanctions in place, the agreement
could still go into effect; the US could still support a UN Security Council vote
lifting sanctions; Iran would still be under pressure to comply with the
agreement in order to get sanctions lifted by other countries. That messy situation still looks better to me
than a collapse of the agreement blamed on the U.S. Congress.